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Tuesday, August 12, 2025

Thailand Likely to Avoid US Reciprocal Tariffs

Thailand may not be among the ten countries facing higher reciprocal tariffs from the United States, Commerce Minister Pichai Naripthaphan said on April 28, citing information from a US private sector source.

Although details regarding the timing and agenda of tariff negotiations remain unclear, Thailand has been actively engaging with American businesses, including Seagate Technology (Thailand), to discuss potential trade measures. The Thai delegation has also been preparing a set of proposals to present during formal discussions with US officials.

Minister Pichai expressed confidence that negotiations could be concluded within one or two rounds of talks. He also dismissed rumors about a possible cabinet reshuffle that might affect his position.

According to the Office of Trade Policy and Strategy, Thailand exported agricultural goods valued at USD 4.7 billion to the US in 2024, with leading products including dog and cat food, rice, flavored tuna, fruit and vegetable juices, sauces, frozen shrimp, and pineapples.

Thai agricultural products appear to have benefited from the high tariffs imposed on Chinese goods, gaining greater access to the US market. In 2024, Thailand was the largest supplier of cat and dog food to the US, accounting for USD 845.2 million or 38% of total imports in this category, while China ranked third. In the rice sector, Thailand held a dominant 56% share, exporting USD 843 million worth, compared to China’s 4%. Thailand also led in flavored mackerel exports, commanding 31% of the US market.

However, Thailand trailed China in flavored bamboo shoots, holding 17% of the US market compared to China’s 59%. Other Thai products, such as pasta, frozen squid, soy sauce, flavored fish, and frozen beans, are expected to see increased opportunities in the US.

Products where Thai exporters may face stronger competition from Chinese counterparts include garlic, vegetables, dried chili, green tea, and dried or powdered onions.

The information was disclosed after ongoing discussions between Thai authorities and American companies, while final decisions on tariffs are yet to be made.

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